This page is about a proposal for a new scientific panel called the EJPCC – Expert Judgement Panel on Climate Change.
This panel will provide expert judgement on the current state of climate change and predictions for the future.
This panel will provide expert judgement on the timescales within which we are likely to see positive climate feedback loops cause large increases in global average temperature.
This panel will also provide expert judgement on the likely effects of these large temperature increases, including whether and how they could lead to the collapse of modern civilisation.
The IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is an existing organisation that was created to provide regular scientific reports on the state of the climate and predictions for the future. The IPCC state in their latest report that their predictions exclude science that cannot be accurately predicted or modeled using computers. They also state that this science is very important.
This means that the IPCC reports are providing us with overly optimistic predictions of the rate of temperature change we are likely to experience. For more details read the What Lies Beneath report, which is introduced by the founder of the famous Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research which advises the German government on climate change science.
The problem is that most of the public and most governments are using the IPCC as the voice of authority, since there is no other current voice of authority on the subject.
The EJPCC will:-
- be funded by the public through direct contributions (crowd funding, Kickstarter, possibly with the help of Extinction Rebellion and private donors).
- consist entirely of experts within their field: climate scientists, economists, political and military experts. Many of these experts may have to leave their original posts in order to join the panel. This will be funded through the above means.
- not require consensus, as the IPCC does. If 25 climate scientists have 25 different views/predictions these will be presented to the public in as simple a way as possible with a summary of the variation in opinions.
- not require the historical conventions of scientific rigour to be applied. These conventions have left humanity entering a danger zone with no experts to guide us. Computer models cannot model chaotic, self reinforcing feedback mechanisms, and so we must turn to the next best thing: expert judgement. Instead we will expect the reports produced to provide us with the best possible answers from the best possible people on the planet to the most important question: What is likely to happen to us and how soon?
To clarify: through talking to many different individuals and through studying many sources it is the authors opinion that it is likely that in the next 3 to 20 years climate feedback mechanisms could lead us to to a Hothouse Earth state which will have catastrophic effects on all living organisms on the planet.
The author cannot point the reader to any single, reputable source that can either confirm or contradict this opinion.
That is the problem that has to be solved.
Contact me through the contact form at https://climateengineers.earth/ if you want to become involved in setting up this panel or being on it. There is no work more important you can do. Without this panel any climate change related work you do will continue to be ignored by the majority of people, who are unaware of the real state of the climate. Any work you do on emissions reduction, green technology, climate engineering, Green New Deal or political change will be futile without a panel like this to give an accurate indication of the urgency of the situation. This includes Extinction Rebellion who’s first demand is “Tell The Truth”. Without this panel there is no Truth to tell, only the IPCCs misleading reports and the opinions of a number of individuals who would be discounted by the majority of the world’s population as alarmists.
Many people heavily involved in the climate debate have said that setting up this panel will not lead to change, because the public are already alarmed about climate change and because they have been not acting on the science for decades, so why would more expert opinion help. I disagree with this opinion for the following reasons:-
- Most people are alarmed, but still think that the timescales for dire personal affects are 20 – 50 years and also that we still have a chance of turning things round through emissions reduction or technologies we haven’t yet invented for reversing the warming.
- I believe that this is fundamentally different from being made aware that climate change could destroy their lifestyle and endanger them within the next 20 years, and that there is almost certainly no current way of preventing this. I believe that this information would cause a large number of people to act – by providing money, changing professions, volunteering, learning the science, creating extreme political pressure, helping investigate new possible solutions, helping campaign for action and other actions.
I’m going to create a page on this site containing internet research that shows:-
- There is lots of scientific evidence and disussion of abrupt climate change and how it could happen.
- There is almost no recent research or credible sources for information about timescales that this abrupt climate change could happen in, or a serious analysis of whether it has already started.
I will start by creating an online report that contains:
- a compilation of the results of my research into abrupt climate change.
- a list of climate experts contacted
- the opinions of those who responded on the likelihood of short term abrupt climate change (short term meaning within the next 20 years).
If you’d like to be involved or contact me please use the contact form at the bottom of https://climateengineers.earth